Why football managers who haven't won a trophy by 43 years old probably never will

Do managers have a peak age?
Sir Alex Ferguson is the greatest manager in Premier League history - do the young careers of other managers suggest anyone can replicate his domination of English football?

Footballers are said to peak at different ages according to position, but what about football managers? Is there any link between periods of dominance and age of the coach in charge?

The average age of a Champions League-winning manager (since 1993) is 49.2 years old. In the Premier League - if we exclude Sir Alex Ferguson to avoid comparing god-tier level coaches to human beings - the average age of a title-winning manager is 50.5 years old. Pep Guardiola is 48, Jurgen Klopp is 51.

We've looked through the careers of more than 50 managers of varying success across Europe and the Premier League to find out if age really matters. This is what we discovered:

The importance of experience vs talent

The average age of a Premier League winning manager suggests those closest to 50.5 (let's call it 51) are those at their peak and therefore the most likely to win the title. Jurgen Klopp (51), Ralph Hasenhuttl (51), Pep Guardiola (48) and Javi Gracia (49) were the closest, Guardiola came out on top. 

For both manager and player, success at the highest level is linked to experience gained when young. Players who don't make it as a first team regular before the age of 20 tend not to reach the same heights as those that do. For every Jadon Sancho there are many more forgotten talents sat on mid-table subs benches.

Similarly, the most successful managers in world football have won their first trophy (at any level) by the age of 43.

There are exceptions but the best win young and win consistently. Mark Hughes may well be a talented coach but it is clear from his record of zero trophies that he is not a winning manager and was/is never going to achieve anything other than mediocrity, no matter if in charge of Stoke or Liverpool.

Sir Alex Ferguson won the Scottish First Division with St Mirren at 35 years old, broke the Old Firm duopoly with Aberdeen and went on to win everything at Manchester United, ending his career with 48 trophies. Pep Guardiola won the Spanish third tier with Barcelona B at 38 years old and has won 25 trophies, while Arrigo Sacchi won Serie C1 at 40 years old before retiring with nine trophy wins in total.

If a club wants to progress and win titles rather than stabilise or drift, history says they need to hire a manager under the age of 51 (ideally under 43) who has consistently won titles in any country, at any level.

The importance of managing a CV

Sam Allarydce has said in the past that he could win titles at Real Madrid if only given the opportunity but his record doesn't show anything close.

At 51 (peak age), Allardyce had won a league title in Ireland (good), the Third Division with Notts County (good) and play-off promotion with Bolton (fine). He finished eighth in the Premier League that season, which although impressive (his best ever is sixth, with Bolton) is his level.

David Moyes has a similar career path: early league title win (Second Division with Preston, Allardyce won the Irish First Division with Limerick) when both were 37 - followed by a move to a bigger club, keeping that club ticking along, over-achieving, then eventually making step up. Unlike Allardyce (England doesn't count), Moyes did get the chance to manage at the top level. It didn't end well.

Despite his fine job at Everton, 11 trophy-less years isn't a good look for Manchester United. Although clearly a talented coach, nobody should have been surprised United finished seventh in Moyes' only season. Would Allardyce have won the league with United or merely kept them safe from relegation?

Diego Simeone also won his first league title at 37, with Estudiantes, won again with River Plate the next season, then moved clubs until arriving at Atletico Madrid in 2011 when 42 years old and won the Europa League.

Jose Mourinho won a quadruple at 40 with Porto, Massimiliano Allegri won Serie C1 with Sassuolo at 40 then Serie A with AC Milan at 43. Claudio Ranieri won his first league title at 37, another at 42 and added two domestic cups by 47. 

Managers who win anything in club football over the age of 55 have almost always won leagues or cups when under 43 (Arsene Wenger, Claudio Ranieri, Ferguson, Manuel Pellegrini, Rafa Benitez, Carlo Ancelotti). Mircea Lucescu won 34 trophies in his career starting with the Romanian second division at 35 years old, Valeriy Lobanovskyi won the Soviet First League with Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk at 31, Jock Stein won the Scottish Cup with Dunfermline at 41, and Walter Smith secured the Scottish Premiership at 43. There are examples littered throughout the history of the game.

If a manager hasn't won a trophy by 43, hiring them does not tend to lead to trophy wins for the club. Alan Pardew (57) was a promising English manager and went on to have six Premier League jobs, but his only career trophy win is the Football League Trophy with Southampton when 49. 

This all makes sense. A manager successful when young (Mourinho, Ferguson, Guardiola) attracts attention from a bigger club, further success attracts greater attention, which gives that manager a platform for even more success at a bigger club. 

However, Rafa Benitez's career suggests the very best managers find a way to win regardless of situation. Benitez has gone from Liverpool to Inter to Chelsea to Napoli to Real Madrid - some of football's biggest jobs - after winning the league with Valencia at 41 years old.

Valencia were hardly favourites to win La Liga in 2001/02 (they finished fifth the season before) but elite managers pull off these feats and Benitez is one. So too did Ferguson at Aberdeen, Cruyff won the Cup Winners' Cup at Ajax, Mourinho won the Champions League at Porto.

So, when Mr Pundit protests that English coaches aren't given an opportunity, consider that few achieve any actual success or consistent trophy wins in the lower leagues. Gaining promotion isn't the same as winning the league, just as maintaining league status at a club doesn't prove a manager can do anything other than the same at a bigger one. 

Individuals like Marco Silva (that dastardly foreigner) and Claude Puel (how dare he) had already won league titles at 37, as opposed to getting a club like Derby to play quite well. 

Why age matters

It is hard to qualify why age makes such a difference but factors like relatability and energy may be key. Arsene Wenger won his last league title with Arsenal at 54, going on 55, at a time when he was managing players like Gilberto Silva (then 28 years old), Thierry Henry (27) and Jens Lehmann (35), giving him an age gap of 20 years to his oldest player and 28 years to his star striker Henry, making Wenger a sort of father-figure.

There is no suggestion that Wenger had any less enthusiasm, talent or passion for the game in 2018 at the age of 68. He certainly had more experience, surely had more tactical knowledge and won't ever lose his eye for talent, but the team he left behind had Petr Cech (then 35), Mesut Ozil (28), and Hector Bellerin (22), meaning the age gap between the first choice right-back and manager was 46 years. That makes Wenger more like a grandfather. Could he really know how to make those players tick?

Another theory is that not all experience is good. Just because a manager has had several years in charge of various top-flight clubs does not necessarily make them better than someone who hasn't coached at that level yet.

Managers below the age of 43 yet to win a trophy might consider stepping down a few levels to win trophies with a smaller club, since almost all the most successful managers analysed here have won things on the crest of a wave of momentum. Many of these coaches' careers resemble that of a rollercoaster and clubs need to idenfity those who are still climbing the tracks. If your ambition is to win trophies, hiring Mark Hughes is like driving a child-friendly choo-choo round the park. 

One club faced a particularly difficult situation this season: their manager was a proven winner but the team was horrible to watch and wasn't winning. If one of the greatest managers in history wasn't able to make Manchester United play nice football and win, who could?

Is Mauricio Pochettino or Ole Gunnar Solskjaer the right man for Man Utd?

Mauricio Pochettino started his management career aged 38 at Espanyol, where it is ludicrously difficult to win trophies, then did well with Southampton (again, difficult) at 40 before establishing Tottenham as Champions League regulars.

At 47, for all the impressive work he's done at Spurs, Pochettino still hasn't won a single trophy.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, has two league titles (plus one with Manchester United reserves), a Norwegian domestic cup, took Molde from mid-table back to title challengers in his second spell there... and is a year younger. No matter who you perceive to be 'better', Solskjaer is already a more successful winner of trophies, and more likely to win the league in future according to this data. The experience of winning league titles at any level appears to be rather important when winning league titles at the highest level.

No manager has ever won the Premier League without previous experience of finishing first in any other league. Solskjaer has that experience, Jurgen Klopp, Guardiola and Unai Emery too.

The jump to Real Madrid or Manchester United's level of resources might be precisely what Pochettino needs to take his career to the level of a serial champion. It's possible Pochettino wins the Champions League this season - an incredible achievement if he pulls it off - and it feels probable he'll win a trophy with Spurs at some point if not, but isn't going to beat Liverpool or Manchester City to the league any time soon.

Were Spurs to win the Champions League, it would be Pochettino's first trophy at 47, making him a member of a rare group of older first-time winners including the likes of Bill Shankly (whose first league title, the second division, with Liverpool came aged 48). 

Pochettino is clearly a superb manager and has transformed Spurs. The great Arsene Wenger won his first Premier League at 48 years old, suggesting this theory about winning under the age of 43 is nonsense and that age isn't everything - there's plenty of time for Pochettino to turn Spurs into winners.

Except, like all winning managers before him, Wenger had already won titles previously, securing Ligue 2 with Monaco when he was 38 and the French Cup at 41.

Solskjaer knows how to win league titles and has already done it, Pochettino's career suggests he can make a good team better but only to a certain (high) level. In context, David O'Leary once had Leeds in a Champions League semi-final too, and were it not for VAR - something all other managers didn't have before - Spurs wouldn't have played Ajax at all.

Why Brendan Rodgers is a great example for British managers

Brendan Rodgers was highly-rated as a coach for his work at Swansea and took Liverpool to second place, but hadn't won anything when fired at age 43. Having experienced no trophy wins (promotion doesn't count because Swansea didn't win the league), there was every chance he ended up on the merry-go-round of mid-table Premier League sides. Instead, he moved to Celtic and won seven trophies, which would almost certainly have been nine had he stayed a few months longer.

Celtic should win everything domestically in Scotland because of the financial gulf between them and everyone else, but Rodgers turned an under-performing side into an invincible one and was on track to win an unprecedented treble treble before moving to Leicester. The experience Rodgers now has of winning titles is invaluable and the titles won show he could achieve similar elsewhere.

Were Rodgers to do reasonably well at Leicester - and the early signs suggest he will - a larger club will see a manager with seven trophy wins, European experience, yet to reach peak age and who plays attractive football.

Those British coaches 'held back' by foreign imports should follow his lead, show ambition and seek success outside the walls of England.

Gary Rowett hasn't won a sausage at 47, Tony Pulis will probably never win a trophy now he's 61 and without a single win, whereas Danny Cowley (40) has just won League Two with Lincoln City and could be the next big thing. If he continues winning or goes somewhere he can replicate that success, Cowley could be something special. In past many clubs have gone for predictable names like Rowett or Pulis. They are fine coaches but clubs with ambitions to win trophies, gain promotion or just improve need to scout their managers from beyond the small pool of familiar faces who merely maintain order.

A relegation-threatened side doesn't need the next Johan Cruyff when Sam Allardyce will rescue them, but the next Cruyff is far more likely to break the glass ceiling of midtable mediocrity than a manager who specialises in it.

Brighton's appointment of Graham Potter, who won the Swedish third tier when 37 and is now 44, is an ambitious one which makes sense. He took a small club with limited resources to the top league, won titles at a young age, had Ostersund competing way above their level in Europe and is yet to hit the peak age of 51.

Why Alex Ferguson is the greatest ever

Of the best ever Premier League managers, all have enjoyed their biggest spells of sustained success between the age of 43 and 55. Mourinho's career is astonishing from Porto at 40 to the end of his first season at Manchester United when 54, Arsene Wenger was phenomenal from age 46 to 55, Rafa Benitez won his first league title at 41 and has enjoyed sustained success until winning the Championship at 56.

Johan Cruyff is one of the greatest and most influential managers of all time. He won his first trophy, the equivalent of the FA Cup in Holland, with Ajax, at 39 years old, then won a cup double the following season (Dutch FA Cup and European Cup Winners' Cup), before moving to La Liga. There he won the Cup Winners' Cup again in 1989 went on to transform Barcelona into the club it is today. A total of 11 trophies, a style of play revered around the world and an exit from elite level management by the age of 49. 

Some managers have remained in employment for several decades - Claudio Ranieri (won his first trophy at 37 in 1989), Roy Hodgson (28 years old when winning the league with Halmstad in 1976) and Manuel Pellegrini (41 years old when winning the league with Unversidad Catolica in 1995) but none have come close to the 48 trophies accumulated by Ferguson.

Ferguson followed up winning a league title (the then-equivalent of the Scottish Championship) and achieving promotion with St Mirren by breaking the duopoly and establishing Aberdeen as the best team in Scotland. In his second year at Pittodrie, aged 38, he had wrestled the league title from the dominant Old Firm. 

More league and cup success followed, peaking with the phenomenal Cup Winners' Cup win over Real Madrid in 1983 when Ferguson was 41 years old. His Manchester United tenure took time to flourish, and Ferguson's proven record of winning trophies must have helped with the decision not to fire him, but that patience and trust resulted in the 1990 FA Cup win which kick-started the domination of a decade. 

Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho are the only active managers in the world who could realistically threaten to beat Ferguson's 48 trophies, and assuming both have jobs at clubs capable of winning competitions for another 20 years, it's possible. While the best managers peak before they are 55 - Cruyff was done at 47 and Arrigo Sacchi won his last trophy at 45 - Ferguson orchestrated league and cup wins right up until his retirement at 71. 

The only manager who could challenge Ferguson's consistent success and longevity is Carlo Ancelotti, who is coincidentally another manager without a clear tactical identity.

Coaches like Cruyff and Sacchi have obvious philosophies and demanding styles of play but couldn't keep them going for longer than a decade. Wenger dominated in England until he was 56 then drifted away. Can Mourinho, Klopp and Guardiola keep up their brands of football effective beyond the age of 55? 

Identity is important. Teams, players and managers are remembered for more than their competition wins - the Holland team of 1974 is better-known than the West Germany team that actually won the World Cup that year - but trophies define success. Some managers combine both, those with long and highly decorated careers like Ferguson evolve with the cycles of the game, rather than define them. 

Who could be the next Alex Ferguson?

Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho are the two obvious candidates, while Carlo Ancelotti's longevity sets him apart from most in a list of all-time greats. Jurgen Klopp might be considered if he snaps his bad habit of losing finals, while Rafa Benitez continues to punch upwards though with less trophy success. What of the next generation though?

Danny Cowley has already been mentioned, Jack Ross (42) has already won the Scottish Championship impressively with St Mirren, and might get Sunderland promoted this season. Eddie Howe, like Ferguson, is a talented coach with fairly simple tactical ideas that are executed well. Two second place finishes and a league title win with Bournemouth by the age of 37 is outstanding but if he has ambitions to win the Champions League, Howe needs better, more, and immediate experience in winning.

Bournemouth's English manager Eddie Howe gestures during the English Premier League football match between Bournemouth and Fulham at the Vitality Stadium
Credit: AFP

Turkey, Greece, Norway, Italy, Scotland - without winning a top division league somewhere, he'll most likely never get a shot at Arsenal, Spurs, Manchester United, Man City or Chelsea, nor know how to make best use of it.

Stay at Bournemouth and the likelihood is another few years of mid-table, some flirting with Europe and a stable job. Conversely, if Howe really is a next-level coach, he'll win things with Bournemouth. 

Howe's career as it stands looks like Jurgen Klopp's if he had never moved to Borussia Dortmund. Klopp wouldn't be able to challenge for leagues and Champions Leagues if he'd stayed at Mainz but his ambition matched with Dortmund's resources facilitated a cup win at 41 years old and a brilliant Bundesliga title at 43. 

In the same way young players have left England to develop in Germany, ambitious managers must consider moving abroad to fulfill potential. 

Marco Silva won titles in Portugal and Greece before getting the Everton job, Brendan Rodgers won seven trophies in two and a half seasons at Celtic before getting a chance at Leicester, Diego Simeone won two league titles in Argentina before moving to Atletico. Stay at a mid-table club and you will only ever be a mid-table manager, unless you are so good at it you end up winning things anyway.

Bigger clubs in England tend not to hire someone without winning experience (Maurizio Sarri a current exception), so those individuals aiming high need to move abroad (Scotland counts!) and win something there. Just like players, managers must show ambition if they are to succeed at the highest level.

Experience is linked to talent, success is tied to previous success. The one thing all the best managers have in common is ambition. Without copious amounts of it applied before the age of 51, managers don't ever win anything.

Time is running out for Mauricio Pochettino to prove he is one of the greats. The Champions League final could be the catalyst for his ascent to the managerial top table. He is not there yet.

And Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may just yet prove his doubters wrong.

License this content